Futures / outrights
BetaProbabilità di vittoria a lungo termine
Fonte: Polymarket (prediction market decentralizzato). Il prezzo di ogni "share" tra $0 e $1 è la probabilità implicita che quell'esito accada. Nessuna vig — spesso più preciso dei bookmaker.
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World Cup Winner
$4.0B vol·8+ esiti
France32.9%3.04
Spain18.8%5.33
Argentina17.8%5.60
World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
$49.2M vol·8+ esiti
Kylian Mbappe43.5%2.30
Lionel Messi35.9%2.79
Erling Haaland11.1%9.01
MLB World Series Champion 2026
$34.5M vol·8+ esiti
the Los Angeles Dodgers28.5%3.51
the New York Yankees12.5%8.00
the Milwaukee Brewers10.2%9.85
2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner
$29.3M vol·8+ esiti
Coco Gauff25.9%3.87
Karolína Muchová17.6%5.67
Naomi Osaka16.9%5.93
MLS Cup Winner 2026
$19.2M vol·8+ esiti
Inter Miami CF26.0%3.85
Vancouver Whitecaps FC12.3%8.13
Nashville SC7.8%12.90
2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner
$15.6M vol·8+ esiti
Jannik Sinner64.5%1.55
Novak Djokovic12.3%8.16
Taylor Fritz9.9%10.10
NBA: LeBron James Next Team
$13.9M vol·8+ esiti
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-2756.2%1.78
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-2719.3%5.19
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-2713.7%7.33
World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
$10.0M vol·8+ esiti
France52.5%1.90
Argentina35.5%2.82
England35.5%2.82
Which continent will win the World Cup?
$9.2M vol·3 esiti
Europe (UEFA)75.5%1.32
South America (CONMEBOL)22.5%4.44
Africa (CAF)2.8%36.36
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
$5.8M vol·8+ esiti
Harry Kane25.9%3.85
Kylian Mbappé21.0%4.76
Ousmane Dembélé13.4%7.46
World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals
$5.7M vol·8+ esiti
Morocco100.0%1.00
Belgium100.0%1.00
Spain100.0%1.00
2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
$5.6M vol·8+ esiti
Aryna Sabalenka23.5%4.26
Iga Swiatek13.0%7.69
Elena Rybakina8.6%11.70
NBA: 2027 Champion
$4.2M vol·8+ esiti
Oklahoma City Thunder21.5%4.65
San Antonio Spurs16.0%6.25
New York Knicks8.5%11.76
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
$4.1M vol·8+ esiti
New York Yankees27.0%3.70
Seattle Mariners20.5%4.88
Tampa Bay Rays14.0%7.17
World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals
$3.9M vol·8+ esiti
France77.5%1.29
Spain74.5%1.34
England65.5%1.53
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
$3.7M vol·8+ esiti
Los Angeles Dodgers45.5%2.20
Milwaukee Brewers12.9%7.75
Atlanta Braves12.5%8.00
NBA Free Agency: Ayo Dosunmu Next Team
$3.7M vol·8+ esiti
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-2798.9%1.01
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for Team A in 2026-2750.0%2.00
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for Team B in 2026-2750.0%2.00
MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher
$3.0M vol·8+ esiti
Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season69.5%1.44
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season18.5%5.41
Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season7.0%14.29
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
$2.8M vol·8+ esiti
Jannik Sinner43.5%2.30
Carlos Alcaraz19.5%5.13
Novak Djokovic6.2%16.26
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
$2.7M vol·8+ esiti
Player A50.0%2.00
Player B50.0%2.00
Player C50.0%2.00
NBA Free Agency: Austin Reaves Next Team
$2.3M vol·8+ esiti
Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-2799.0%1.01
Will Austin Reaves play for Team A in 2026-2750.0%2.00
Will Austin Reaves play for Team B in 2026-2750.0%2.00
World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer
$2.1M vol·8+ esiti
a player representing France46.5%2.15
a player representing Argentina35.5%2.82
a player representing Norway10.1%9.90
MLB: ERA Leader
$1.7M vol·8+ esiti
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season13.5%7.41
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season8.1%12.42
Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season5.9%16.95
World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination
$1.7M vol·2 esiti
Will Spain finish in some other position in the World Cup50.0%2.00
Spain17.5%5.71
MLB: Runs Leader
$1.7M vol·8+ esiti
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season12.5%8.00
Will Ben Rice lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season6.3%16.00
Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season2.5%39.22
MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
$1.6M vol·8+ esiti
Kevin McGonigle64.0%1.56
Munetaka Murakami15.5%6.45
Samuel Basallo2.3%44.44
MLB: RBIs Leader
$1.4M vol·8+ esiti
Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season8.5%11.76
Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season8.5%11.76
Will Andy Pages lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season4.9%20.41
MLB: Batting Average Leader
$1.4M vol·8+ esiti
Will Otto Lopez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season24.4%4.10
Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season23.0%4.35
Will Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season7.0%14.29
World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties
$1.3M vol·1 esiti
there0.2%500.00
MLB: Triples Leader
$1.3M vol·8+ esiti
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season82.5%1.21
Will Luis Arraez hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season2.6%37.74
Will Xavier Edwards hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season2.1%47.62