football · world-cup
BetaWorld Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals
Total volume: $5.68M·Liquidity: $588.0K
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Real fixtures pulled from ESPN; live odds from DraftKings today, more US books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) filling in as ESPN publishes them. Crypto sportsbook adapters (Cloudbet, Stake, Roobet, Sportsbet.io) are next. Pre-match only. Report anything odd on Telegram.
Outcomes — Polymarket implied probability
| # | Outcome | Prob % | Decimal odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 100.0% | 1.00 | $307.7K |
| 2 | Belgium | 100.0% | 1.00 | $220.7K |
| 3 | Spain | 100.0% | 1.00 | $436.9K |
| 4 | France | 100.0% | 1.00 | $541.1K |
| 5 | Norway | 100.0% | 1.00 | $226.3K |
| 6 | England | 100.0% | 1.00 | $400.5K |
| 7 | Argentina | 86.5% | 1.16 | $467.2K |
| 8 | Colombia | 60.5% | 1.65 | $162.4K |
| 9 | Switzerland | 39.5% | 2.53 | $97.2K |
| 10 | Egypt | 13.5% | 7.41 | $145.8K |
How to read
Each outcome has a YES-share price between $0 and $1 which is the implied probability the outcome occurs. A $0.33 price → 33% probability → decimal odds 3.03. Unlike a sportsbook, Polymarket applies no margin (vig) — the probabilities of mutually-exclusive outcomes sum close to 100% (clean).