tennis · atp-tour
Beta2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Total volume: $2.82M·Liquidity: $631.4K·Resolves: 13/09/2026
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Real fixtures pulled from ESPN; live odds from DraftKings today, more US books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) filling in as ESPN publishes them. Crypto sportsbook adapters (Cloudbet, Stake, Roobet, Sportsbet.io) are next. Pre-match only. Report anything odd on Telegram.
Outcomes — Polymarket implied probability
| # | Outcome | Prob % | Decimal odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | 43.5% | 2.30 | $13.5K |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | 19.5% | 5.13 | $17.7K |
| 3 | Novak Djokovic | 6.2% | 16.26 | $182.8K |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | 6.0% | 16.53 | $21.3K |
| 5 | Taylor Fritz | 3.1% | 31.75 | $20.6K |
| 6 | Daniil Medvedev | 2.5% | 40.00 | $19.7K |
| 7 | Ben Shelton | 2.5% | 40.82 | $49.8K |
| 8 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 2.1% | 47.62 | $471.2K |
| 9 | Joao Fonseca | 1.9% | 51.28 | $100.2K |
| 10 | Flavio Cobolli | 1.7% | 60.61 | $13.1K |
| 11 | Jakub Mensik | 1.5% | 66.67 | $82.5K |
| 12 | Arthur Fils | 1.1% | 86.96 | $59.5K |
| 13 | Jack Draper | 1.1% | 95.24 | $44.2K |
| 14 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1.1% | 95.24 | $170.1K |
| 15 | Alexander Bublik | 0.9% | 105.26 | $26.9K |
| 16 | Jiri Lehecka | 0.9% | 111.11 | $278.7K |
| 17 | Andrey Rublev | 0.9% | 111.11 | $122.4K |
| 18 | Frances Tiafoe | 0.9% | 117.65 | $9.2K |
| 19 | Grigor Dimitrov | 0.7% | 142.86 | $661.7K |
| 20 | Holger Rune | 0.7% | 153.85 | $6.3K |
| 21 | Matteo Berrettini | 0.6% | 166.67 | $293.1K |
| 22 | Hubert Hurkacz | 0.5% | 181.82 | $155.9K |
How to read
Each outcome has a YES-share price between $0 and $1 which is the implied probability the outcome occurs. A $0.33 price → 33% probability → decimal odds 3.03. Unlike a sportsbook, Polymarket applies no margin (vig) — the probabilities of mutually-exclusive outcomes sum close to 100% (clean).