April 30
$17.4M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
Politics● closed
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupy…
24h volume
$539.4K
Total volume
$61.6M
Liquidity
$219.6K
Markets
8
31 mars 2026
Iran RegimeIranMojtaba KhameneiKhameneiGeopoliticsKharg IslandStrait of HormuzU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
📊Markets and probabilities
June 30
$13.5M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
May 31
$11.2M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
April 15
$8.4M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
March 31
$7.8M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 31
$1.6M volNo—
97.0%
Yes—
3.0%
June 24
$1.1M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
August 31
$673.5K volNo—
94.8%
Yes—
5.2%
How to read
The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).