football · world-cup
BetaWorld Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals
Total volume: $3.86M·Liquidity: $3.26M·Resolves: 13/07/2026
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Outcomes — Polymarket implied probability
| # | Outcome | Prob % | Decimal odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 77.5% | 1.29 | $420.4K |
| 2 | Spain | 74.5% | 1.34 | $275.1K |
| 3 | England | 65.5% | 1.53 | $181.8K |
| 4 | Argentina | 62.5% | 1.60 | $407.9K |
| 5 | Norway | 34.5% | 2.90 | $214.5K |
| 6 | Belgium | 26.1% | 3.84 | $91.7K |
| 7 | Colombia | 23.5% | 4.26 | $103.0K |
| 8 | Morocco | 22.7% | 4.42 | $172.8K |
| 9 | Switzerland | 9.8% | 10.26 | $57.9K |
| 10 | Egypt | 3.6% | 27.40 | $183.7K |
How to read
Each outcome has a YES-share price between $0 and $1 which is the implied probability the outcome occurs. A $0.33 price → 33% probability → decimal odds 3.03. Unlike a sportsbook, Polymarket applies no margin (vig) — the probabilities of mutually-exclusive outcomes sum close to 100% (clean).