Politics⏱ closes in 5mo

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporar…

24h volume

$6.0M

Total volume

$58.3M

Liquidity

$1.1M

Markets

31 Dec 2026

PoliticsGeopoliticsStarmerRewards 20, 4.5, 50UK Labour Leadership

📊Markets and probabilities

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$12.0M vol

No—

99.7%

Yes—

0.3%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$8.7M vol

No—

99.7%

Yes—

0.4%

None before 2027

$6.5M vol

No—

99.6%

Yes—

0.4%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$6.0M vol

No—

99.9%

Yes—

0.1%

Milei - Argentina President

$5.2M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Lecornu - France PM

$4.0M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.2%

Putin - Russia President

$3.9M vol

No—

99.9%

Yes—

0.1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$3.6M vol

No—

99.7%

Yes—

0.4%

Trump - USA President

$3.1M vol

No—

99.9%

Yes—

0.1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$1.1M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Starmer - UK PM

$1.0M vol

Yes—

97.2%

No—

2.8%

Petro - Colombia President

$935.5K vol

No—

99.6%

Yes—

0.4%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$647.1K vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$210.1K vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.2%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$207.2K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$163.5K vol

No—

99.9%

Yes—

0.1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$154.3K vol

No—

99.7%

Yes—

0.4%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$141.8K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Macron - France President

$135.2K vol

No—

99.9%

Yes—

0.1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$135.2K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$127.3K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Newsom - California Governor

$124.1K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$105.8K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$92.3K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.1%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).