Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupy…

24h volume

$539.4K

Total volume

$61.6M

Liquidity

$219.6K

Markets

31 Mar 2026

Iran RegimeIranMojtaba KhameneiKhameneiGeopoliticsKharg IslandStrait of HormuzU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

📊Markets and probabilities

April 30

$17.4M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

June 30

$13.5M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

May 31

$11.2M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

April 15

$8.4M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

March 31

$7.8M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

July 31

$1.6M vol

No—

97.0%

Yes—

3.0%

June 24

$1.1M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

August 31

$673.5K vol

No—

94.8%

Yes—

5.2%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).