July 4
$137.9K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
Politicsβ± closes in 1d
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by tβ¦
24h volume
$151.3K
Total volume
$783.9K
Liquidity
$189.9K
Markets
22
9 Jul 2026
IranseizestrikeGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
πMarkets and probabilities
June 27
$76.2K volYesβ
100.0%
Noβ
0.0%
June 29
$70.2K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
June 30
$63.0K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
July 7
$57.6K volYesβ
96.4%
Noβ
3.6%
June 26
$53.3K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
July 6
$52.4K volNoβ
92.1%
Yesβ
7.9%
July 3
$45.2K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
July 5
$42.1K volNoβ
99.5%
Yesβ
0.5%
June 28
$41.6K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
July 1
$37.5K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
July 8
$37.4K volNoβ
80.0%
Yesβ
20.0%
July 2
$32.6K volNoβ
100.0%
Yesβ
0.0%
July 9
$20.3K volNoβ
80.7%
Yesβ
19.4%
July 11
$3.6K volNoβ
86.5%
Yesβ
13.5%
July 16
$2.7K volNoβ
85.0%
Yesβ
15.0%
July 17
$2.4K volNoβ
88.0%
Yesβ
12.0%
July 12
$2.0K volNoβ
84.5%
Yesβ
15.5%
July 13
$1.9K volNoβ
85.0%
Yesβ
15.0%
July 15
$1.6K volNoβ
86.0%
Yesβ
14.0%
July 14
$1.5K volNoβ
87.5%
Yesβ
12.5%
July 10
$554 volNoβ
79.5%
Yesβ
20.5%
How to read
The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The β²/βΌ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).