0 (0 bps)
$14.0K volNo—
60.0%
Yes—
40.0%
Economy⏱ closes in 5mo
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31,…
24h volume
$4.6K
Total volume
$21.4K
Liquidity
$65.5K
Markets
6
31 Dec 2026
FedRatefomcKevin WarshGlobal RatesJerome Powellfederal reserve
📊Markets and probabilities
1 (25 bps)
$3.4K volNo—
66.0%
Yes—
34.0%
2 (50 bps)
$1.3K volNo—
92.0%
Yes—
8.0%
5+ (125+ bps)
$1.0K volNo—
99.7%
Yes—
0.4%
4 (100 bps)
$859 volNo—
99.4%
Yes—
0.6%
3 (75 bps)
$733 volNo—
92.9%
Yes—
7.1%
How to read
The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).