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Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, rega…

24h volume

$752

Total volume

$3.7K

Liquidity

$7.6K

Markets

2026年12月31日

AITechTeslaBig TechBusinessElon Musk

📊Markets and probabilities

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

$3.7K vol

No—

85.5%

Yes—

14.5%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).