July 4
$137.9K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
Politics⏱ closes in 1d
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by t…
24h volume
$151.3K
Total volume
$783.9K
Liquidity
$189.9K
Markets
22
2026年7月9日
IranseizestrikeGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
📊Markets and probabilities
June 27
$76.2K volYes—
100.0%
No—
0.0%
June 29
$70.2K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
June 30
$63.0K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 7
$57.6K volYes—
96.4%
No—
3.6%
June 26
$53.3K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 6
$52.4K volNo—
92.1%
Yes—
7.9%
July 3
$45.2K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 5
$42.1K volNo—
99.5%
Yes—
0.5%
June 28
$41.6K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 1
$37.5K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 8
$37.4K volNo—
80.0%
Yes—
20.0%
July 2
$32.6K volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
July 9
$20.3K volNo—
80.7%
Yes—
19.4%
July 11
$3.6K volNo—
86.5%
Yes—
13.5%
July 16
$2.7K volNo—
85.0%
Yes—
15.0%
July 17
$2.4K volNo—
88.0%
Yes—
12.0%
July 12
$2.0K volNo—
84.5%
Yes—
15.5%
July 13
$1.9K volNo—
85.0%
Yes—
15.0%
July 15
$1.6K volNo—
86.0%
Yes—
14.0%
July 14
$1.5K volNo—
87.5%
Yes—
12.5%
July 10
$554 volNo—
79.5%
Yes—
20.5%
How to read
The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).