Economy⏱ closes in 5mo

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 202…

24h volume

$97.8K

Total volume

$41.0M

Liquidity

$3.3M

Markets

2026年12月31日

Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 DeprecFed RatesEconomic PolicyFedBusinessJerome PowellEconomyFinance

📊Markets and probabilities

0 (0 bps)

$5.8M vol

Yes—

77.5%

No—

22.6%

11 (275 bps)

$4.6M vol

No—

99.9%

Yes—

0.1%

10 (250 bps)

$4.4M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

9 (225 bps)

$3.7M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

6 (150 bps)

$3.4M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

12+ (300+ bps)

$3.4M vol

No—

99.7%

Yes—

0.4%

8 (200 bps)

$2.7M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

7 (175 bps)

$2.6M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

5 (125 bps)

$2.2M vol

No—

99.8%

Yes—

0.3%

3 (75 bps)

$2.1M vol

No—

98.2%

Yes—

1.8%

4 (100 bps)

$2.0M vol

No—

99.7%

Yes—

0.4%

2 (50 bps)

$2.0M vol

No—

96.5%

Yes—

3.5%

1 (25 bps)

$2.0M vol

No—

84.5%

Yes—

15.5%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).