Economy⏱ closes in 6mo

US economic state at the end of 2026?

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Ind…

24h volume

Total volume

$29.1K

Liquidity

$24.5K

Markets

31 जन॰ 2027

EconomyCPIunemploymentInflation

📊Markets and probabilities

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$14.3K vol

No—

62.0%

Yes—

38.0%

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$12.9K vol

No—

61.0%

Yes—

39.0%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$922 vol

No—

88.0%

Yes—

12.0%

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$903 vol

No—

90.2%

Yes—

9.8%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).