Crypto⏱ closes in 5mo

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this m…

24h volume

$29.2K

Total volume

$4.4M

Liquidity

$75.9K

Markets

1 janv. 2027

Crypto CultureCryptoBitcoinSatoshi

📊Markets and probabilities

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

$4.4M vol

No—

93.2%

Yes—

6.9%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).