Politics● closed

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.

24h volume

$68.9K

Total volume

$7.5M

Liquidity

$245.8K

Markets

31 déc. 2025

UkrainePoliticsWorldGeopoliticsRussia CaptureUkraine Map

📊Markets and probabilities

December 31

$1.3M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

March 31, 2026

$965.8K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

December 31, 2026

$917.5K vol

Yes—

93.3%

No—

6.7%

August 31

$820.5K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

June 30, 2026

$749.5K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

October 31

$701.1K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

January 31, 2026

$496.6K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

February 28, 2026

$486.2K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

September 30, 2026

$258.3K vol

Yes—

84.0%

No—

16.0%

November 30

$229.5K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

April 30, 2026

$223.8K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

September 30

$163.8K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

July 31, 2026

$102.5K vol

No—

64.0%

Yes—

36.0%

May 31, 2026

$69.9K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).