Politics⏱ closes in 5mo

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market cr…

24h volume

$372.6K

Total volume

$1.2M

Liquidity

$141.5K

Markets

31 déc. 2026

IranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

📊Markets and probabilities

July 31

$519.6K vol

No—

70.5%

Yes—

29.5%

June 30

$503.0K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

December 31

$173.5K vol

No—

53.0%

Yes—

47.0%

August 31

$9.9K vol

No—

64.5%

Yes—

35.5%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).