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Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only…

24h volume

$340

Total volume

$4.7K

Liquidity

$6.1K

Markets

1 janv. 2027

FinancePrivatesDario AmodeiAIBig TechchatgptllmOpenAIsam altman

📊Markets and probabilities

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

$4.7K vol

Anthropic + OpenAI —

51.0%

Microsoft—

49.0%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).