Politics⏱ closes in 5mo

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited …

24h volume

$88.5K

Total volume

$38.2M

Liquidity

$833.5K

Markets

31 dic 2026

PoliticsWorldGeopoliticsForeign PolicyChinaEarn 4%

📊Markets and probabilities

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$38.2M vol

No—

95.8%

Yes—

4.3%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).