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Politics● closed

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF…

24h volume
$68.5K
Total volume
$5.5M
Liquidity
$67.8K
Markets
7
30 jun 2026
PoliticshouthiIrantrafficStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsRegional Spillovershippingred seacape of good hopeHouthis

📊Markets and probabilities

April 30

$1.7M vol
No
100.0%
Yes
0.0%

May 31

$1.3M vol
No
100.0%
Yes
0.0%

June 30

$1.2M vol
No
100.0%
Yes
0.0%

September 30

$568.5K vol
No
86.5%
Yes
13.5%

March 31

$330.3K vol
No
100.0%
Yes
0.0%

June 15

$221.1K vol
No
100.0%
Yes
0.0%

June 22

$129.3K vol
No
100.0%
Yes
0.0%
How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — Polymarket implied odds · TrackerSino · TrackerSino