Politics⏱ closes in 5mo

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of Novem…

24h volume

$487.5K

Total volume

$39.9M

Liquidity

$534.5K

Markets

31. Dez. 2026

Military StrikesPoliticsGeopoliticsWorldMiddle EastIsraelIranTrump

📊Markets and probabilities

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

$39.9M vol

No—

85.5%

Yes—

14.5%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).