June 30
$3.2M volNo—
100.0%
Yes—
0.0%
Politics⏱ closes in 1mo
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument…
24h volume
$1.0M
Total volume
$8.5M
Liquidity
$1.4M
Markets
7
31. Aug. 2026
IranUS-IranPeace DealGeopoliticsMiddle EastIran Ceasefire
📊Markets and probabilities
August 31
$2.4M volNo—
87.5%
Yes—
12.5%
August 18
$990.6K volNo—
89.5%
Yes—
10.5%
July 31
$769.9K volNo—
99.0%
Yes—
1.0%
December 31
$507.0K volNo—
63.5%
Yes—
36.5%
September 30
$462.2K volNo—
81.5%
Yes—
18.5%
August 13
$260.2K volNo—
97.7%
Yes—
2.3%
How to read
The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).