Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF…

24h volume

$68.5K

Total volume

$5.5M

Liquidity

$67.8K

Markets

30. Juni 2026

PoliticshouthiIrantrafficStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsRegional Spillovershippingred seacape of good hopeHouthis

📊Markets and probabilities

April 30

$1.7M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

May 31

$1.3M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

June 30

$1.2M vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

September 30

$568.5K vol

No—

86.5%

Yes—

13.5%

March 31

$330.3K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

June 15

$221.1K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

June 22

$129.3K vol

No—

100.0%

Yes—

0.0%

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the 24-hour change in percentage points (pp).